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Cuiaba U17 vs Atletico GO U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cuiaba U17
Cuiaba U17
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
Widney 40'
A. Vieira 39'
J. Pedro 20'
Y. Souza 11'
7/22/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 11CT Manoel Dresch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cuiaba U1773%
×Draw16%
Atletico GO U1711%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba U17
2.64
Atletico GO U17
0.95

Cuiaba U17 creates 178% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cuiaba U17
1.57
Atletico GO U17
0.60

allows per match

Cuiaba U17
1.29
Atletico GO U17
3.70

finishing

Cuiaba U17+0.00on par
Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba U17 ↓

Atletico GO U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cuiaba U17 or draw
89%
Cuiaba U17 or Atletico GO U17
84%
Draw or Atletico GO U17
27%

Winning margin

Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+
51%
Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cuiaba U17 1+ goals
93%
Cuiaba U17 2+ goals
74%
Cuiaba U17 3+ goals
48%
Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
61%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
25%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)
86%
Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba U17 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Atletico GO U17 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba U17 attack 1.57 + Atletico GO U17 defence 3.70 → ÷2 → 2.64

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.60 + Cuiaba U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Cuiaba U17 scores more
73%
level
16%
Atletico GO U17 scores more
11%

Cuiaba U17 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cuiaba U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Y. Souza
20'
J. Pedro
39'
A. Vieira
40'
Widney

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Cuiaba U17 3–1 Atletico GO U17

Cuiaba U17 beat Atletico GO U17 3-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 22, 2025.

Goals: Y. Souza (11'), J. Pedro (20'), A. Vieira (39'), Widney (40').

The match was played at CT Manoel Dresch in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.