Cucuta 1–0 Santa Fe: Result & Stats | Primera A

Cucuta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Fe

L. Miranda 52'

7/20/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta37%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Cucuta

1.17

Santa Fe

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.11

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Santa Fe

1.00

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Santa Fe

1.23

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Santa Fe+0.07on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

65%

Cucuta or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

63%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

15%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

69%

Cucuta 2+ goals

33%

Cucuta 3+ goals

11%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

68%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

31%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

51%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Santa Fe defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Santa Fe attack 1.00 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cucuta scores more

37%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

35%

Cucuta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Miranda

Cucuta · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

David Achucarro

22'

J. Velásquez← L. Seijas

28'

30'

36'

52'

56'

60'

M. Balanta← J. Caicedo

75'

Y. Carabalí← M. Pérez

84'

E. Valencia← L. Miranda

90+1'

J. Pérez← H. Obando

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaSanta

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots4

4Corners1

18Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots4

4On Target1

4Off Target1

3Blocked2

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

290Total Passes427

189Accurate Passes326

65%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

7Offsides1