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Cucuta vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real Santander
Real Santander
9/7/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 9Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cucuta61%
×Draw24%
Real Santander16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.69
Real Santander
0.72

Cucuta creates 135% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 126 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.75
Real Santander
0.73

allows per match

Cucuta
0.71
Real Santander
1.62

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
84%
Cucuta or Real Santander
76%
Draw or Real Santander
39%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
34%
Real Santander wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
82%
Cucuta 2+ goals
50%
Cucuta 3+ goals
24%
Real Santander 1+ goals
51%
Real Santander 2+ goals
16%
Real Santander 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
79%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.71 · 93 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.75 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Cucuta defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cucuta scores more
61%
level
24%
Real Santander scores more
16%

Cucuta at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Real Santander

Cucuta beat Real Santander 2-1 in Primera B on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander.