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Cucuta vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
5/11/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 15Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cucuta54%
×Draw26%
Real Cartagena20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.54
Real Cartagena
0.82

Cucuta creates 88% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 162 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.75
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Cucuta
0.71
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
80%
Cucuta or Real Cartagena
74%
Draw or Real Cartagena
46%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
28%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
79%
Cucuta 2+ goals
45%
Cucuta 3+ goals
20%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
56%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
20%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
73%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.71 · 93 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.75 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Cucuta defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cucuta scores more
54%
level
26%
Real Cartagena scores more
20%

Cucuta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Real Cartagena

Cucuta and Real Cartagena drew 1-1 in Primera B on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander.