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Cucuta vs Popayan — Primera B 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Popayan
Popayan
2/20/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 4Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cucuta58%
×Draw24%
Popayan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.65
Popayan
0.78

Cucuta creates 112% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 130 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.75
Popayan
0.86

allows per match

Cucuta
0.71
Popayan
1.54

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Popayan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
82%
Cucuta or Popayan
76%
Draw or Popayan
42%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
32%
Popayan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
81%
Cucuta 2+ goals
49%
Cucuta 3+ goals
23%
Popayan 1+ goals
54%
Popayan 2+ goals
18%
Popayan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
77%
Popayan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.71 · 93 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.54 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.75 + Popayan defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.65

Popayan attack 0.86 + Cucuta defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cucuta scores more
58%
level
24%
Popayan scores more
18%

Cucuta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cucuta 1–0 Popayan

Cucuta beat Popayan 1-0 in Primera B on February 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cúcuta.