Cucuta 3–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats | Primera A

Cucuta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Millonarios

10/3/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cucuta34%

×Draw27%

Millonarios39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.33

Cucuta

1.23

Millonarios

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 190 away

1.31

creates per match

1.19

1.48

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Cucuta

1.31

Millonarios

1.19

allows per match

Cucuta

1.48

Millonarios

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

61%

Cucuta or Millonarios

73%

Draw or Millonarios

66%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

15%

Millonarios wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

71%

Cucuta 2+ goals

35%

Cucuta 3+ goals

13%

Millonarios 1+ goals

74%

Millonarios 2+ goals

38%

Millonarios 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

47%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.31 + Millonarios defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millonarios attack 1.19 + Cucuta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cucuta scores more

34%

level

27%

Millonarios scores more

39%

Millonarios at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff