Cucuta 2–2 Jaguares: Result & Stats | Primera B

Cucuta

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

J. Agudelo 89' (pen)

E. M. Duarte Barajas 61'

Y. Mosquera 79'

L. Hinestroza 29' (OG)

11/11/2025

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cucuta44%

×Draw27%

Jaguares30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

Cucuta

1.39

Jaguares

1.10

Cucuta creates 26% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 23 away

1.77

creates per match

1.48

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cucuta

1.77

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Cucuta

0.73

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

70%

Cucuta or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

56%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

21%

Jaguares wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

75%

Cucuta 2+ goals

40%

Cucuta 3+ goals

16%

Jaguares 1+ goals

67%

Jaguares 2+ goals

30%

Jaguares 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

59%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.77 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Cucuta defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cucuta scores more

44%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

30%

Cucuta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

L. HinestrozaOwn goal

46'

J. Valencia← M. Pisano

52'

53'

57'

61'

63'

65'

67'

68'

71'

76'

77'

L. Guevara← J. Ceballos

77'

79'

83'

83'

87'

87'

89'

89'

J. AgudeloPenalty

90+3'

A. Borja← E. M. Duarte Barajas

90+2'

Y. Salas← A. Escobar

Cucuta

Jaguares

1

Figueroa

23

▼

Lora

30

Arrieta

25

Roa

4

⚽

14

11

17

6

▼

Escobar

15

Maza

60

▼

Lenis

12

Sanchez

4

Plazas

27

⚽

▼

Barajas

30

Payares

8

▼

Ceballos

6

Orozco

29

▼

Rios

49

🥅

Hinestroz

9

▼

Pisano

17

▼

Arizalas

99

▼

Peralta

Manager: B. Redín

46'▲J. Valencia←▼M. Pisano

53'▲S. Roman←▼J. Peralta

68'▲J. Agudelo←▼L. Rios

77'▲L. Guevara←▼J. Ceballos

77'▲W. Cruz←▼E. Arizalas

90+3'▲A. Borja←▼E. M. Duarte Barajas

Cucuta substitutes

24Roman16Borja3Calcaterra66Gelvez21Guevara33Tamara32Agudelo70Cruz19Valencia

Manager: A. Hernández

65'▲J. Lovera←▼R. Lora

71'▲D. Ceter←▼K. Lenis

90+2'▲Y. Salas←▼A. Escobar

Jaguares substitutes

12Arroyo5Lovera13Gutierrez20Andrade29Salas24Ceter16Mosquera10Urango