Cucuta 2–1 Internacional de Bogota: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional de Bogota

M. Pérez 63'

J. Agudelo 38'

M. Mier 28'

8/24/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 8Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cucuta46%

×Draw25%

Internacional de Bogota30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.24

Cucuta

1.60

Internacional de Bogota

1.24

Cucuta creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

1.33

creates per match

0.82

1.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Cucuta

1.33

Internacional de Bogota

0.82

allows per match

Cucuta

1.67

Internacional de Bogota

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

70%

Cucuta or Internacional de Bogota

75%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

54%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

23%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

80%

Cucuta 2+ goals

47%

Cucuta 3+ goals

22%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

71%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

35%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.33 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Cucuta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cucuta scores more

46%

level

25%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

30%

Cucuta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pérez

Cucuta · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

M. Mier

36'

Joan Castro

38'

J. Agudelo

40'

C. Valencia← J. Agudelo

46'

J. Hernández← D. Chica

49'

57'

63'

63'

71'

A. De Armas← N. Barona

76'

76'

85'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaInternacional

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots13

6Corners2

21Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots13

7On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked5

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

269Total Passes292

197Accurate Passes211

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Internacional de Bogota

Cucuta beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Primera A on August 24, 2019.

Goals: M. Mier (28'), J. Agudelo (38'), M. Pérez (63').

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.

Cucuta vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cucuta vs Internacional de Bogota