Cucuta 3–2 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportes Tolima

L. Hernandez 57', 28'

J. Quinones 49'

K. Florez 38', 15'

2/23/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 8Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta32%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.23

Cucuta

1.06

Deportes Tolima

1.23

Deportes Tolima creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Deportes Tolima

1.20

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Deportes Tolima

1.00

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Deportes Tolima-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

60%

Cucuta or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

68%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

12%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

65%

Cucuta 2+ goals

29%

Cucuta 3+ goals

9%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

71%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

35%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

44%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportes Tolima attack 1.20 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cucuta scores more

32%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

40%

Deportes Tolima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

K. Florez

Deportes Tolima · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

K. Florez

28'

L. Hernandez↳ L. Berdugo

38'

K. Florez↳ L. Sandoval

46'

J. Quinones← D. Calcaterra

46'

B. Cordoba← S. Rodriguez

46'

A. Cano← F. Castaneda

49'

J. Quinones↳ L. Berdugo

56'

J. Hernandez← S. P. Barbosa Gomez

56'

Y. Moreno← E. Valencia

57'

J. Valencia← L. Sandoval

57'

Y. A. Parra← M. Martinez

57'

L. Hernandez↳ E. Arizalas

62'

Brayan Rovira

70'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

70'

J. Peralta← L. Berdugo

75'

B. Montano← Y. Abonia

75'

N. Sanchez← K. Florez

85'

Jaime Peralta

87'

Juan David Ramírez

89'

Kevin Londoño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaDeportes

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots22

0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.61

8Corners13

9Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots22

4On Target8

4Off Target10

2Blocked4

7Inside Box14

3Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

284Total Passes480

217Accurate Passes409

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-1.75Goals Prevented-1.75

Discipline

9Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1