Cucuta 1–0 Chico: Result & Stats | Primera A

Cucuta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chico

L. Berdugo 5'

3/28/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta48%

×Draw26%

Chico25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.00

Cucuta

1.49

Chico

1.00

Cucuta creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.11

creates per match

0.76

1.25

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Chico

0.76

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Chico

1.87

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Chico-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

75%

Cucuta or Chico

74%

Draw or Chico

52%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

24%

Chico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

77%

Cucuta 2+ goals

44%

Cucuta 3+ goals

19%

Chico 1+ goals

63%

Chico 2+ goals

26%

Chico 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

66%

Chico (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Chico away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Chico defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.49

Chico attack 0.76 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cucuta scores more

48%

level

26%

Chico scores more

25%

Cucuta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Berdugo

Cucuta · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

L. Berdugo↳ E. Arizalas

7'

Leider BerdugoGoal confirmed

12'

Kevin Londoño

25'

O. Albornoz← E. Arizalas

29'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

33'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

33'

Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

38'

Sebastián Palma

45+7'

Jaime Peralta

45+7'

Darío Denis

46'

J. Ceballos← S. Orozco

46'

J. Castillo← A. Aedo

52'

J. Quinones← L. Hernandez

62'

Federico Abadía

68'

Anyelo Saldaña Marín

73'

d. J. Diaz Montes J.← I. Montano

84'

Jaime Peralta

84'

Jaime Peralta

90+4'

Delio Ramírez

90'

F. Castaneda← L. Berdugo

90'

E. M. Duarte Barajas← B. Montano

90'

N. Valencia← A. Banguero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaChico

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots18

0.59Expected Goals (xG)1.57

2Corners2

10Fouls23

Shots

8Total Shots18

2On Target4

6Off Target8

0Blocked6

6Inside Box9

2Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

224Total Passes384

156Accurate Passes329

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

10Fouls23

6Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Primera A: Cucuta 1–0 Chico

Cucuta beat Chico 1-0 in Primera A on March 28, 2026.

Goals: L. Berdugo (5').

Chico controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.

Cucuta vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Cucuta 1–0 Chico