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Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
Preview
23:05
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
8/15/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5Estadio General Santander
39%
Cucuta
model favours
39%27%35%

Águilas Doradas win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cucuta39%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.31
Águilas Doradas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 170 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.31
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Cucuta
1.48
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
65%
Cucuta or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
61%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
73%
Cucuta 2+ goals
38%
Cucuta 3+ goals
14%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
35%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
53%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.31 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Cucuta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cucuta scores more
39%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
35%

Cucuta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Cucuta
Balanced
Águilas Doradas
Balanced
48%Possession49%
77%Pass accuracy77%
9.1ShotsBiggest gap11.8
1.19xG1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CucutaÁguilas Doradas

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Cucuta
0
Draws
2
Águilas Doradas
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 75%
2–31–23–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cucuta
LDDDL
Doradas
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cucuta face Águilas Doradas (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Cucuta hosting Águilas Doradas. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cucuta host Águilas Doradas at Estadio General Santander.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.