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Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
1/26/2019Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cucuta39%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.31
Águilas Doradas
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 170 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.31
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Cucuta
1.48
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
65%
Cucuta or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
61%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
73%
Cucuta 2+ goals
38%
Cucuta 3+ goals
14%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
35%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
53%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.31 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Cucuta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cucuta scores more
39%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
35%

Cucuta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Cucuta 3–0 Águilas Doradas

Cucuta beat Águilas Doradas 3-0 in Primera A on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cucuta.