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Cúcuta Deportivo W vs La Equidad W — Liga Femenina 2020

Cúcuta Deportivo W
Cúcuta Deportivo W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Equidad W
La Equidad W
3/9/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 3Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W46%
×Draw31%
La Equidad W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cúcuta Deportivo W
1.14
La Equidad W
0.71

Cúcuta Deportivo W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.71
La Equidad W
0.85

allows per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.57
La Equidad W
1.56

finishing

Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par
La Equidad W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cúcuta Deportivo W ↓

La Equidad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cúcuta Deportivo W or draw
77%
Cúcuta Deportivo W or La Equidad W
69%
Draw or La Equidad W
54%

Winning margin

Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+
20%
La Equidad W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals
68%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals
32%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals
11%
La Equidad W 1+ goals
51%
La Equidad W 2+ goals
16%
La Equidad W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)
67%
La Equidad W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cúcuta Deportivo W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

La Equidad W away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.56 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + La Equidad W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.14

La Equidad W attack 0.85 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more
46%
level
31%
La Equidad W scores more
23%

Cúcuta Deportivo W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cúcuta Deportivo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Cúcuta Deportivo W 1–0 La Equidad W

Cúcuta Deportivo W beat La Equidad W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cúcuta.