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Cúcuta Deportivo W vs Independiente Medellín W — Liga Femenina 2020

Cúcuta Deportivo W
Cúcuta Deportivo W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
4/13/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 7Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W38%
×Draw32%
Independiente Medellín W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cúcuta Deportivo W
1.00
Independiente Medellín W
0.84

Cúcuta Deportivo W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.71
Independiente Medellín W
1.11

allows per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.57
Independiente Medellín W
1.30

finishing

Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par
Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cúcuta Deportivo W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cúcuta Deportivo W or draw
70%
Cúcuta Deportivo W or Independiente Medellín W
68%
Draw or Independiente Medellín W
62%

Winning margin

Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+
15%
Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals
63%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals
26%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals
8%
Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
57%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
21%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cúcuta Deportivo W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.00

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more
38%
level
32%
Independiente Medellín W scores more
30%

Cúcuta Deportivo W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cúcuta Deportivo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cúcuta Deportivo W vs Independiente Medellín W

Cúcuta Deportivo W and Independiente Medellín W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio General Santander in Cúcuta.