Cúcuta Deportivo W 0–0 Alianza W: Result & Stats

Cúcuta Deportivo W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza W

4/28/2024

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 9Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W51%

×Draw29%

Alianza W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cúcuta Deportivo WExpected goals in this matchAlianza W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.73

Cúcuta Deportivo W

1.32

Alianza W

0.73

Cúcuta Deportivo W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

0.71

creates per match

0.89

0.57

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W

0.71

Alianza W

0.89

allows per match

Cúcuta Deportivo W

0.57

Alianza W

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par

Alianza W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cúcuta Deportivo W ↓

Alianza W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cúcuta Deportivo W or draw

79%

Cúcuta Deportivo W or Alianza W

71%

Draw or Alianza W

49%

Winning margin

Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+

24%

Alianza W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals

73%

Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals

38%

Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals

15%

Alianza W 1+ goals

52%

Alianza W 2+ goals

17%

Alianza W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)

71%

Alianza W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cúcuta Deportivo W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Alianza W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + Alianza W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Alianza W attack 0.89 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more

51%

level

29%

Alianza W scores more

21%

Cúcuta Deportivo W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cúcuta Deportivo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff