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Cuarte vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cuarte
Cuarte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huesca II
Huesca II
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 4Nuevo Estadio Municipal Cuarte de Huerva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Cuarte43%
×Draw28%
Huesca II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuarte
1.30
Huesca II
1.00

Cuarte creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cuarte
1.44
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

Cuarte
0.67
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw
71%
Cuarte or Huesca II
72%
Draw or Huesca II
57%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+
20%
Huesca II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals
73%
Cuarte 2+ goals
37%
Cuarte 3+ goals
14%
Huesca II 1+ goals
63%
Huesca II 2+ goals
26%
Huesca II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)
60%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 112 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.44 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Huesca II attack 1.32 + Cuarte defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuarte scores more
43%
level
28%
Huesca II scores more
29%

Cuarte at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Cuarte 2–1 Huesca II

Cuarte beat Huesca II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Municipal Cuarte de Huerva in Cuarte de Huerva.