Cuarte 3–1 Cariñena: Result & Stats

Cuarte

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cariñena

12/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Estadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Cuarte58%

×Draw25%

Cariñena18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuarteExpected goals in this matchCariñena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.79

Cuarte

1.64

Cariñena

0.79

Cuarte creates 108% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 82 away

1.44

creates per match

0.91

0.67

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Cuarte

1.44

Cariñena

0.91

allows per match

Cuarte

0.67

Cariñena

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par

Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Cariñena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw

82%

Cuarte or Cariñena

75%

Draw or Cariñena

42%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+

31%

Cariñena wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals

81%

Cuarte 2+ goals

49%

Cuarte 3+ goals

23%

Cariñena 1+ goals

55%

Cariñena 2+ goals

19%

Cariñena 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)

76%

Cariñena (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 112 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.44 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Cuarte defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cuarte scores more

58%

level

25%

Cariñena scores more

18%

Cuarte at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff