Cuarte 1–1 Badajoz: Result & Stats

Cuarte

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Badajoz

I. Vera 8'

J. Bermudez 65'

6/20/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cuarte34%

×Draw25%

Badajoz41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuarteExpected goals in this matchBadajoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Cuarte

1.33

Badajoz

1.50

Badajoz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cuarte

1.33

Badajoz

1.67

allows per match

Cuarte

1.33

Badajoz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par

Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Badajoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw

59%

Cuarte or Badajoz

75%

Draw or Badajoz

66%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+

15%

Badajoz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals

74%

Cuarte 2+ goals

38%

Cuarte 3+ goals

15%

Badajoz 1+ goals

78%

Badajoz 2+ goals

44%

Badajoz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)

45%

Badajoz (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.33 + Badajoz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Badajoz attack 1.67 + Cuarte defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cuarte scores more

34%

level

25%

Badajoz scores more

41%

Badajoz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

I. Vera

65'

J. Bermudez

80'

Quezada

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff