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Cuarte vs Andorra CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Cuarte
Cuarte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Andorra CF
Andorra CF
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 20Estadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cuarte52%
×Draw28%
Andorra CF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuarte
1.36
Andorra CF
0.71

Cuarte creates 92% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cuarte
1.44
Andorra CF
0.74

allows per match

Cuarte
0.67
Andorra CF
1.29

finishing

Cuarte+0.00on par
Andorra CF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuarte ↓

Andorra CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cuarte or draw
80%
Cuarte or Andorra CF
72%
Draw or Andorra CF
48%

Winning margin

Cuarte wins by 2+
25%
Andorra CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cuarte 1+ goals
74%
Cuarte 2+ goals
39%
Cuarte 3+ goals
16%
Andorra CF 1+ goals
51%
Andorra CF 2+ goals
16%
Andorra CF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cuarte (draw refunded)
73%
Andorra CF (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuarte at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 112 matches

Andorra CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuarte attack 1.44 + Andorra CF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Andorra CF attack 0.74 + Cuarte defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cuarte scores more
52%
level
28%
Andorra CF scores more
20%

Cuarte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuarte vs Andorra CF

Cuarte beat Andorra CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo in Cuarte de Huerva.