Cuando Cubango 1–0 Recreativo do Libolo

Cuando Cubango

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Recreativo do Libolo

2/6/2022

Girabola · Round 18Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango43%

×Draw32%

Recreativo do Libolo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cuando CubangoExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.74

Cuando Cubango

1.08

Recreativo do Libolo

0.74

Cuando Cubango creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 99 away

0.82

creates per match

0.72

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cuando Cubango

0.82

Recreativo do Libolo

0.72

allows per match

Cuando Cubango

0.76

Recreativo do Libolo

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw

75%

Cuando Cubango or Recreativo do Libolo

68%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

57%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+

18%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals

66%

Cuando Cubango 2+ goals

29%

Cuando Cubango 3+ goals

10%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

52%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

17%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)

64%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more

43%

level

32%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

25%

Cuando Cubango at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff