Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cuando Cubango vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
1 – 0
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
10/24/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Cuando Cubango41%
×Draw33%
Recreativo da Caála26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.03
Recreativo da Caála
0.75

Cuando Cubango creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
74%
Cuando Cubango or Recreativo da Caála
67%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
59%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
16%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
64%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
28%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
9%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
53%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
61%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
41%
level
33%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
26%

Cuando Cubango at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Cuando Cubango 1–0 Recreativo da Caála

Cuando Cubango beat Recreativo da Caála 1-0 in Girabola on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos in Kuito.