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Cuando Cubango vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
1 – 1
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
1/18/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cuando Cubango56%
×Draw28%
Ferroviário do Huambo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.35
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.58

Cuando Cubango creates 133% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
84%
Cuando Cubango or Ferroviário do Huambo
72%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
44%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
27%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
74%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
39%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
15%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
44%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
12%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
78%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
56%
level
28%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
16%

Cuando Cubango at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuando Cubango vs Ferroviário do Huambo

Cuando Cubango and Ferroviário do Huambo drew 1-1 in Girabola on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Menongue (Menongue).