Cuando Cubango 1–1 Baixa de Kassange

Cuando Cubango

FT

1 – 1

Baixa de Kassange

1/31/2021

Girabola · Round 7Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cuando Cubango53%

×Draw27%

Baixa de Kassange19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cuando CubangoExpected goals in this matchBaixa de Kassange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

Cuando Cubango

1.41

Baixa de Kassange

0.72

Cuando Cubango creates 96% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

0.82

creates per match

0.67

0.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cuando Cubango

0.82

Baixa de Kassange

0.67

allows per match

Cuando Cubango

0.76

Baixa de Kassange

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Baixa de Kassange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw

81%

Cuando Cubango or Baixa de Kassange

73%

Draw or Baixa de Kassange

47%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+

27%

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals

76%

Cuando Cubango 2+ goals

41%

Cuando Cubango 3+ goals

17%

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals

51%

Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals

16%

Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)

74%

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more

53%

level

27%

Baixa de Kassange scores more

19%

Cuando Cubango at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff