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Cuando Cubango vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
12/23/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 14Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango43%
×Draw32%
Académica do Lobito24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.07
Académica do Lobito
0.72

Cuando Cubango creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
76%
Cuando Cubango or Académica do Lobito
68%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
57%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
18%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
66%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
29%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
9%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
51%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
16%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
64%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
43%
level
32%
Académica do Lobito scores more
24%

Cuando Cubango at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuando Cubango vs Académica do Lobito

Cuando Cubango beat Académica do Lobito 1-0 in Girabola on December 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos in Kuito.