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CSS Târgovişte W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
0 – 3
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
9/11/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 3Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W26%
×Draw18%
Vasas Femina W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
1.99
Vasas Femina W
2.94

Vasas Femina W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 58 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
43%
CSS Târgovişte W or Vasas Femina W
82%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
74%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
13%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
86%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
59%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
32%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
95%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
79%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
31%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 1.99

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
26%
level
18%
Vasas Femina W scores more
57%

Vasas Femina W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSS Târgovişte W vs Vasas Femina W

Vasas Femina W beat CSS Târgovişte W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.