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CSS Târgovişte W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
0 – 3
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
11/6/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 8Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W17%
×Draw15%
Universitatea Alexandria W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
1.85
Universitatea Alexandria W
3.62

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
32%
CSS Târgovişte W or Universitatea Alexandria W
85%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
83%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
8%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
84%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
55%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
28%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
97%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
87%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
20%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 1.85

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
17%
level
15%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
68%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSS Târgovişte W vs Universitatea Alexandria W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat CSS Târgovişte W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.