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CSS Târgovişte W vs Olimpia Cluj W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
0 – 13
Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
10/3/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 6Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W5%
×Draw9%
Olimpia Cluj W86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
0.94
Olimpia Cluj W
3.91

Olimpia Cluj W creates 316% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
Olimpia Cluj W
3.27

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
Olimpia Cluj W
1.16

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
14%
CSS Târgovişte W or Olimpia Cluj W
91%
Draw or Olimpia Cluj W
95%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
1%
Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
61%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
24%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
7%
Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
98%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
89%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
6%
Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 3.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
5%
level
9%
Olimpia Cluj W scores more
86%

Olimpia Cluj W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: CSS Târgovişte W 0–13 Olimpia Cluj W

Olimpia Cluj W beat CSS Târgovişte W 13-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.