CSS Târgovişte W 0–3 Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

CSS Târgovişte W

FT

0 – 3

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

8/29/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 1Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W7%

×Draw10%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSS Târgovişte WExpected goals in this matchHeniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

3.68

CSS Târgovişte W

1.07

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

3.68

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 244% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.73

creates per match

2.82

4.55

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W

0.73

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.82

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W

4.55

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw

17%

CSS Târgovişte W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

90%

Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

93%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+

2%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals

66%

CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals

29%

CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals

9%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

97%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

87%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)

8%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 3.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more

7%

level

10%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

83%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff