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CSS Târgovişte W vs FF Baia Mare W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
0 – 4
FF Baia Mare W
FF Baia Mare W
3/12/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 2Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W29%
×Draw18%
FF Baia Mare W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
2.16
FF Baia Mare W
2.90

FF Baia Mare W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
FF Baia Mare W
1.26

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
FF Baia Mare W
3.58

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
FF Baia Mare W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

FF Baia Mare W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
47%
CSS Târgovişte W or FF Baia Mare W
82%
Draw or FF Baia Mare W
71%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
15%
FF Baia Mare W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
88%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
63%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
36%
FF Baia Mare W 1+ goals
94%
FF Baia Mare W 2+ goals
78%
FF Baia Mare W 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
35%
FF Baia Mare W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

FF Baia Mare W away — creates 1.26, concedes 3.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + FF Baia Mare W defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.16

FF Baia Mare W attack 1.26 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
29%
level
18%
FF Baia Mare W scores more
53%

FF Baia Mare W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FF Baia Mare W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: CSS Târgovişte W 0–4 FF Baia Mare W

FF Baia Mare W beat CSS Târgovişte W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.