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CSS Târgovişte W vs Banat Girls W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
FT
1 – 1
Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
5/29/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 10Teren sintetic Târgoviște

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSS Târgovişte W22%
×Draw17%
Banat Girls W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSS Târgovişte W
1.75
Banat Girls W
2.92

Banat Girls W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

CSS Târgovişte W
0.73
Banat Girls W
1.30

allows per match

CSS Târgovişte W
4.55
Banat Girls W
2.77

finishing

CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par
Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSS Târgovişte W ↓

Banat Girls W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

CSS Târgovişte W or draw
39%
CSS Târgovişte W or Banat Girls W
83%
Draw or Banat Girls W
78%

Winning margin

CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
10%
Banat Girls W wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
83%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
52%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
25%
Banat Girls W 1+ goals
94%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
78%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
27%
Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSS Târgovişte W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 4.55 · 11 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.73 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 4.55 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CSS Târgovişte W scores more
22%
level
17%
Banat Girls W scores more
61%

Banat Girls W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Banat Girls W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: CSS Târgovişte W 1–1 Banat Girls W

CSS Târgovişte W and Banat Girls W drew 1-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Târgoviște in Târgoviște.