Csornai SE 3–1 Zalaegerszegi TE II: Result & Stats

Csornai SE

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zalaegerszegi TE II

4/30/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 35Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csornai SE38%

×Draw24%

Zalaegerszegi TE II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csornai SEExpected goals in this matchZalaegerszegi TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.50

Csornai SE

1.49

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

1.11

1.89

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Csornai SE

1.21

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.11

allows per match

Csornai SE

1.89

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par

Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw

62%

Csornai SE or Zalaegerszegi TE II

76%

Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE II

62%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+

18%

Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals

77%

Csornai SE 2+ goals

44%

Csornai SE 3+ goals

19%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals

78%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals

44%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)

50%

Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.21 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.11 + Csornai SE defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Csornai SE scores more

38%

level

24%

Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more

38%

Csornai SE at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Csornai SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff