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Csornai SE vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Csornai SE
Csornai SE
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
9/4/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 7Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csornai SE32%
×Draw24%
Érdi VSE44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csornai SE
1.39
Érdi VSE
1.65

Érdi VSE creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Csornai SE
1.21
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Csornai SE
1.89
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw
56%
Csornai SE or Érdi VSE
76%
Draw or Érdi VSE
68%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+
15%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals
75%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
40%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
16%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
81%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
49%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)
43%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.21 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Csornai SE defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Csornai SE scores more
32%
level
24%
Érdi VSE scores more
44%

Érdi VSE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csornai SE vs Érdi VSE

Érdi VSE beat Csornai SE 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep in Csorna.