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CSM Reşiţa vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
5/2/2026Liga IILiga II · Relegation Group - 6Mircea Chivu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

CSM Reşiţa42%
×Draw27%
Viitorul Şelimbăr31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.31
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.09

CSM Reşiţa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.96

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.23

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
69%
CSM Reşiţa or Viitorul Şelimbăr
73%
Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr
58%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
19%
Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
73%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
38%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
14%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
66%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
30%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
57%
Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
42%
level
27%
Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
31%

CSM Reşiţa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSM Reşiţa vs Viitorul Şelimbăr

Viitorul Şelimbăr beat CSM Reşiţa 2-0 in Liga II on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Mircea Chivu Stadium.