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CSM Reşiţa vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
CANC
08:00
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
5/30/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSM Reşiţa47%
×Draw25%
Sportul Snagov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.58
Sportul Snagov
1.16

CSM Reşiţa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
72%
CSM Reşiţa or Sportul Snagov
75%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
53%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
24%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
79%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
47%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
21%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
69%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
32%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
63%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
47%
level
25%
Sportul Snagov scores more
28%

CSM Reşiţa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSM Reşiţa face Sportul Snagov (Liga II)

Liga II returns with CSM Reşiţa hosting Sportul Snagov. Match starts May 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.