CSM Reşiţa 1–2 Rapid: Result & Stats | Liga II

CSM Reşiţa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rapid

9/1/2019

Liga II · Round 5Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

CSM Reşiţa37%

×Draw26%

Rapid36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSM ReşiţaExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.30

CSM Reşiţa

1.32

Rapid

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

1.40

creates per match

1.38

1.22

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.40

Rapid

1.38

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.22

Rapid

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw

64%

CSM Reşiţa or Rapid

74%

Draw or Rapid

63%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+

17%

Rapid wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals

73%

CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals

38%

CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals

15%

Rapid 1+ goals

73%

Rapid 2+ goals

37%

Rapid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)

51%

Rapid (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rapid attack 1.38 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more

37%

level

26%

Rapid scores more

36%

CSM Reşiţa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff