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CSM Reşiţa vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
8/17/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

CSM Reşiţa56%
×Draw23%
Pandurii TG JIU22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.87
Pandurii TG JIU
1.08

CSM Reşiţa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
78%
CSM Reşiţa or Pandurii TG JIU
77%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
44%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
32%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
85%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
56%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
29%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
66%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
29%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
72%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.87

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
56%
level
23%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
22%

CSM Reşiţa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSM Reşiţa 3–1 Pandurii TG JIU

CSM Reşiţa beat Pandurii TG JIU 3-1 in Liga II on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Mircea Chivu in Reşiţa.