CSM Reşiţa 1–1 Metaloglobus: Result & Stats

CSM Reşiţa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Metaloglobus

4/25/2025

Liga II · Promotion Round - 6Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

CSM Reşiţa43%

×Draw26%

Metaloglobus31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSM ReşiţaExpected goals in this matchMetaloglobus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

CSM Reşiţa

1.42

Metaloglobus

1.15

CSM Reşiţa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 96 away

1.40

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.40

Metaloglobus

1.07

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.22

Metaloglobus

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Metaloglobus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw

69%

CSM Reşiţa or Metaloglobus

74%

Draw or Metaloglobus

57%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+

21%

Metaloglobus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals

76%

CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals

41%

CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals

17%

Metaloglobus 1+ goals

68%

Metaloglobus 2+ goals

32%

Metaloglobus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)

59%

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more

43%

level

26%

Metaloglobus scores more

31%

CSM Reşiţa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff