CSM Reşiţa 3–1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti: Result & Stats

CSM Reşiţa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

2/24/2024

Liga II · Round 16Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

CSM Reşiţa35%

×Draw26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSM ReşiţaExpected goals in this matchCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.34

CSM Reşiţa

1.28

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

1.40

creates per match

1.46

1.22

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.40

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.46

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.22

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw

62%

CSM Reşiţa or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

74%

Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti

65%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+

15%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals

72%

CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals

37%

CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals

14%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

74%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

39%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)

48%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more

35%

level

26%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

38%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff