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CSKA Sofia vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
8/26/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Balgarska Armiya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CSKA Sofia83%
×Draw13%
Vereya Stara Zagora4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
2.52
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.41

CSKA Sofia creates 515% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 16 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.78
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.63
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
96%
CSKA Sofia or Vereya Stara Zagora
87%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
17%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
61%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
92%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
71%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
45%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
34%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
6%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
95%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
83%
level
13%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
4%

CSKA Sofia at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA Sofia 4–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

CSKA Sofia beat Vereya Stara Zagora 4-0 in First League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Balgarska Armiya Stadium in Sofia.