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CSKA Sofia vs Litex — Friendlies Clubs 2026

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Litex
Litex
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSKA Sofia70%
×Draw16%
Litex14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
2.73
Litex
1.15

CSKA Sofia creates 137% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.79
Litex
1.00

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
1.29
Litex
3.67

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Litex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
86%
CSKA Sofia or Litex
84%
Draw or Litex
30%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
49%
Litex wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
93%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
75%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
50%
Litex 1+ goals
68%
Litex 2+ goals
32%
Litex 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
83%
Litex (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Litex away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.79 + Litex defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Litex attack 1.00 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
70%
level
16%
Litex scores more
14%

CSKA Sofia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: CSKA Sofia 5–3 Litex

CSKA Sofia beat Litex 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.