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CSKA Sofia vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
11/10/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CSKA Sofia59%
×Draw25%
Levski Krumovgrad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia
1.56
Levski Krumovgrad
0.66

CSKA Sofia creates 136% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 37 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia
1.78
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

CSKA Sofia
0.63
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw
84%
CSKA Sofia or Levski Krumovgrad
75%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
41%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
32%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
79%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
46%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
21%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
48%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
14%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
79%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more
59%
level
25%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
16%

CSKA Sofia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: CSKA Sofia 2–2 Levski Krumovgrad

CSKA Sofia and Levski Krumovgrad drew 2-2 in First League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.