CSKA Sofia 0–2 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia

0 – 2

Korona Kielce

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Miracle Resort Hotel Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CSKA Sofia53%

×Draw22%

Korona Kielce25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA SofiaExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.31

CSKA Sofia

1.98

Korona Kielce

1.31

CSKA Sofia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.79

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

CSKA Sofia

1.79

Korona Kielce

1.33

allows per match

CSKA Sofia

1.29

Korona Kielce

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia ↓

Korona Kielce →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia or draw

75%

CSKA Sofia or Korona Kielce

78%

Draw or Korona Kielce

47%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

31%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

86%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

59%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

31%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

73%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

38%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

68%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia attack 1.79 + Korona Kielce defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Korona Kielce attack 1.33 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA Sofia scores more

53%

level

22%

Korona Kielce scores more

25%

CSKA Sofia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff