CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 136+ matches
CSKA Sofia51%
Cherno More Varna22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Sofia creates 71% more chances
Season form · 139 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Sofia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Sofia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.63 · 139 matches
Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Sofia attack 1.78 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.44
Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
CSKA Sofia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
LudogoretsCSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev PlovdivCherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
CSKA Sofia host Cherno More Varna on Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the First League 2018/2019 season.
First League: CSKA Sofia 1–1 Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna drew 1-1 in First League on March 15, 2025.
Goals: A. Donchev (40'), L. Cooper (69').
CSKA Sofia controlled possession (73%) and registered 6 shots to 6.
The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.