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CSKA Sofia III vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia III
CSKA Sofia III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
11/2/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CSKA Sofia III64%
×Draw20%
Granit Vladaya16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia III
2.17
Granit Vladaya
0.97

CSKA Sofia III creates 124% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia III
1.71
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

CSKA Sofia III
1.20
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

CSKA Sofia III+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia III ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia III or draw
84%
CSKA Sofia III or Granit Vladaya
80%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
36%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia III wins by 2+
41%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia III 1+ goals
89%
CSKA Sofia III 2+ goals
64%
CSKA Sofia III 3+ goals
36%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
62%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
25%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia III (draw refunded)
80%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia III attack 1.71 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.17

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + CSKA Sofia III defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CSKA Sofia III scores more
64%
level
20%
Granit Vladaya scores more
16%

CSKA Sofia III at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CSKA Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Sofia III vs Granit Vladaya

CSKA Sofia III beat Granit Vladaya 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Benkovski in Kostenets.