CSKA Sofia II 1–0 Vitosha Bistritsa: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia II

FT

1 – 0

Vitosha Bistritsa

9/6/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II55%

×Draw24%

Vitosha Bistritsa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchVitosha Bistritsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.93

CSKA Sofia II

1.67

Vitosha Bistritsa

0.93

CSKA Sofia II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

2.15

creates per match

1.13

0.74

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II

2.15

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.13

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II

0.74

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw

79%

CSKA Sofia II or Vitosha Bistritsa

76%

Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa

45%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

30%

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

81%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

50%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

23%

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

61%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

24%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

72%

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more

55%

level

24%

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

21%

CSKA Sofia II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff