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CSKA Sofia II vs Montana — Second League 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montana
Montana
3/30/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSKA Sofia II42%
×Draw28%
Montana30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.28
Montana
1.04

CSKA Sofia II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 86 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
1.66
Montana
1.22

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.87
Montana
0.91

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
70%
CSKA Sofia II or Montana
72%
Draw or Montana
58%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
19%
Montana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
37%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
14%
Montana 1+ goals
65%
Montana 2+ goals
28%
Montana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
58%
Montana (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.66 + Montana defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Montana attack 1.22 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
42%
level
28%
Montana scores more
30%

CSKA Sofia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA Sofia II 0–0 Montana

CSKA Sofia II and Montana drew 0-0 in Second League on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.