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CSKA Sofia II vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
8/12/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 2Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II67%
×Draw21%
Hebar II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.88
Hebar II
0.65

CSKA Sofia II creates 189% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 38 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
88%
CSKA Sofia II or Hebar II
79%
Draw or Hebar II
33%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
40%
Hebar II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
85%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
56%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
29%
Hebar II 1+ goals
48%
Hebar II 2+ goals
14%
Hebar II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
85%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hebar II attack 0.55 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
67%
level
21%
Hebar II scores more
12%

CSKA Sofia II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Sofia II 3 – 1 Hebar II

CSKA Sofia II beat Hebar II 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.