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CSKA Sofia II vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
2 – 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
9/30/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Bâlgarska Armija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II60%
×Draw21%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.97
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
0.97

CSKA Sofia II creates 103% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
82%
CSKA Sofia II or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
79%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
40%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
36%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
86%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
58%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
31%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
62%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
77%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
60%
level
21%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
18%

CSKA Sofia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA Sofia II 2–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

CSKA Sofia II beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia.