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CSKA Sofia II vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
6/1/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 37Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II62%
×Draw22%
Botev Ihtiman16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.91
Botev Ihtiman
0.86

CSKA Sofia II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 132 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
84%
CSKA Sofia II or Botev Ihtiman
78%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
38%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
37%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
85%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
57%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
30%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
58%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
21%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
79%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
62%
level
22%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
16%

CSKA Sofia II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA Sofia II 2–0 Botev Ihtiman

CSKA Sofia II beat Botev Ihtiman 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.