CSKA Sofia II 2–0 Belasitsa: Result & Stats

CSKA Sofia II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belasitsa

8/25/2025

Second League · Round 5Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSKA Sofia II58%

×Draw25%

Belasitsa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchBelasitsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.78

CSKA Sofia II

1.64

Belasitsa

0.78

CSKA Sofia II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

1.66

creates per match

0.70

0.87

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II

1.66

Belasitsa

0.70

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II

0.87

Belasitsa

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Belasitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Belasitsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw

82%

CSKA Sofia II or Belasitsa

75%

Draw or Belasitsa

42%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

32%

Belasitsa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

81%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

49%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

23%

Belasitsa 1+ goals

54%

Belasitsa 2+ goals

18%

Belasitsa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

77%

Belasitsa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Belasitsa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.66 + Belasitsa defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Belasitsa attack 0.70 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more

58%

level

25%

Belasitsa scores more

18%

CSKA Sofia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff